[Classicmerp] GURPS Normal Distribution Curve vs Linear Approaches

[Lev Lafayette]

On Tue, December 24, 2013 9:48 pm, Michael Cole wrote:
> OK.  Lets start with the target at about point blank range.  At a point
> where Doofus the Recruit should be able to hit it at about 95% of the
> time.  Lets say that Sharpie the Marksman now has 99% - hey, he could
> miss.

Doofus and Sharpie have a 4% difference in ability? They're not really
that different then.

> Note here that I am not arguing that the numbers all work out - sure, we
> could fix the numbers.  But a linear system would be even more broken -
> that is what I am arguing.  The key point is that as you get better,
> simple stuff becomes extremely simple, difficult stuff becomes only
> slightly less difficult.

It is true that for an expert they can perform simple tasks without
thinking about about ("unconscious competence" in learning theory), but
that can be easily simulated by a linear system.

For example, let's assume a "routine" task has a modifier of +6 (using the
MERP/Rolemaster definition of "routine" on a d20 scale). If they have a
good level of ability (say 15+), they can perform routine tasks in a fair
environment 105% of the time, i.e., it's unconscious.

Actually raising the environment issue is another example on why normal
distribution doesn't make sense. According to the normal distribution
advocates, a small number of environmental modifiers make minimal
difference to an expert, then suddenly some more make a big difference,
then they're back to making a small difference.

It is somewhat hard to justify that approach accords with reality.

> BTW, you are famous.  Read this
> <http://forums.sjgames.com/showthread.php?p=1490660>

Not the only time I've brought this up, and unsurprising given the fact
that 2600 people have read the review.

Of course there is a difference of course between those who have an
opinion, and those who have spent some time actually researching how
skills are learned.


-- 
Lev Lafayette, BA (Hons), GradCertTerAdEd (Murdoch), GradCertPM, MBA (Tech
Mngmnt) (Chifley)
mobile:  0432 255 208
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